Thoughts on the ocean, the environment, the universe and everything from nearly a mile high.

Panorama of The Grand Tetons From the top of Table Mountain, Wyoming © Alan Holyoak, 2011

Friday, July 5, 2013

Holy cow! The 2013 Arctic sea ice melt is accelerating like crazy!

I know I just posted on the Arctic Ocean sea ice melt, but, well, that was three days ago.  And three days ago it looked like an acceleration of sea ice melt might have been on the way, but I'd say that now it's official!  Look at the difference between the 1981-2010 baseline trend and the observed sea ice melt between the latter half of June and July 4th.  Wow!


I did a little math, and here's what I came up with.

On June 21st the historical baseline (1981-2010) showed sea ice extent at about 11.4 million km2 and 10.55 million km2 on July 4th.  That's a difference of 850,000 km2 of sea ice, or a melt rate of about 65,400 km2 of sea ice per day.

By comparison, the observed time period between June 21st and July 4th 2013 showed a sea ice extent of 11.1 million km2 on June 21st and an extent of 9.6 million km2 on July 4th.  That's a difference of 1.5 million km2 over that time period for a daily sea ice melt rate of about 115,400 km2 per day.

The observed melt rate for 2013 over the past two weeks or so is therefore nearly double the baseline melt rate for the same time period.  It's doubtful that this melt rate can be maintained for long, but the next few weeks will give us a good indication about whether the 2012 sea ice minimum extent record is in jeopardy. That is, if the current sea ice melt rate will be sustained, at least over the short term.

So, it's true, things are really starting to warm up in the Arctic.

Stay tuned...it's going to be an interesting summer!

Monday, July 1, 2013

Time to check in on the Arctic Ocean summer sea ice melt - 1 July 2013

It's been a while since I posted anything about what's happening in the Arctic Ocean.  In a word, the summer 2013 sea ice melt is "on".  So far this spring/summer, sea ice cover has declined from a winter maximum ice extent of just over 15 million km2 down to 10.5 million km2 as of yesterday (6-30-2013).

The maps below shows that sea ice melt is progressing much faster than the 1981-2010 average in Hudson Bay, the Barents Sea, Baffin Bay, and other areas around the Canadian Archipelago.  Sea ice melt in the Bering and Chukchi Seas are right on the historical average.




The graph below courtesy of NSIDC.org shows the relationship between the 2013 Spring/Summer melt and that of the 1981-2010 average and the 2012 all time record low sea ice melt.  The current melt is currently about midway between the historic average melt and the record melt for this time of year.  The rate of sea ice melt has really increased (as indicated by the steep downward turn in the blue line on the graph below) over the past week or so.  The rate of sea ice melt will really have to speed up, though, if it's going to have a chance of catching last year's record pace. 


If you follow these kinds of data on a regular basis, like I do, you might be surprised to see the current rate of sea ice melt is as close as it is to the historic rate of sea ice melt.  That's because NSIDC recently updated their baseline data for comparisons from a 22-year average (1979-2000) to a 30 year average (1981-2010), since that is standard practice for baselines whenever possible.  You can read more about that change by clicking this link: http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2013/06/updating-the-sea-ice-baseline/.  FYI, the NSIDC made this change on June 18, 2013.

So as of now, the 2013 sea ice melt is not threatening to break last year's record minimum sea ice extent.  But the only way to know what is going to happen is to be patient and keep checking back.

Have a great summer, but I hope that not too much sea ice melts!

Thursday, June 27, 2013

Letting your vehicle idle doesn't help the environment - who knew?

Lots of people have the idea that idling a vehicle for a few minutes here and a few minutes there actually helps the environment by using less gas than starting and then restarting the engine.  That may have been true at one time, but not any more.  

It's time to shut down our engines when we are not driving (drive-throughs, grocery stores, convenience stores, banks, etc.).  That is actually the environmentally friendly thing to do.

Check out the information in the graphic below.

ORIGINAL: By Sustainable America. Check out the I Turn It Off campaign, where you'll get a free bumper sticker for pledging not to idle! 


Thursday, June 20, 2013

The difference between climate and weather - funny, but true

This posting to "That Videosite.com" attempts to spoof the British Government's commitment to mitigating climate change, but in a strange turn of events actually does a good job of reminding everyone of the difference between climate and weather, and that an unusually cold day doesn't offset the overall long term trend of climate change, a.k.a. global warming.  Why not click the link below and give it a look.

Cheers!

http://www.thatvideosite.com/v/2981/global-warming


Wednesday, May 1, 2013

Do we really need to know how to write?


Do Professionals in the Sciences Truly Need to Know How to Write?
Alan Holyoak, PhD
Dept of Biology, BYU-Idaho
May 2009

Introduction

You may be thinking, “I plan on becoming a dentist, a doctor, a conservation officer, etc., do I also need to be a good writer?”  That is what this paper is about.

The current state of writing skill among professional scientists

The ability to communicate clearly, concisely, and effectively is strong evidence of an educated, well-trained mind, and is therefore one hallmark of a true professional.  For this reason the ability to communicate, including writing, is one of the most prized technical skills for a professional in our society.  Yet the ability of scientists and engineers to communicate effectively falls consistently below their employers’ needs and expectations.  This disturbing observation is supported by the findings of Davis, et al. (1989) that showed that second only to hands-on experience, biotechnology companies view the ability to communicate as the most important qualification they seek in job applicants – that means that communication skills are viewed by these companies as being more important than the school someone attended, the grades they earned, or the letters of recommendation they can provide.  The National Research Council (1997) found similar results when it surveyed employers of PhD-level scientists and engineers, and asked those employers to identify weaknesses in their employees’ training.  These employers indicated that the largest deficiency in their PhD-level employees’ training was their lack of communication skills (NRC, 1997). 

About now you may be thinking that those employers have expectations that are just too high, but perhaps we should ask ourselves if there is any evidence that suggests that there is a growing trend of poor writing among professional scientists.  Consider this.  The editor of the journal Evolution provided a shocking vision of the widespread deficiency of writing skills among professional biologists when he wrote, “Much to my surprise, poor writing is almost as frequent a reason for rejection [of a paper] as flawed experimental design or analysis.  Nearly 50% of all rejected papers are so badly written that reviewers, Associate Editors, and the Editor cannot understand the experimental design, the analysis, the interpretation, or all of these components.  In many of these manuscripts even the purpose of the paper is obscure!” (Endler, 1992).  The editor of the journal Integrative and Comparative Biology reached similar conclusions to those of Endler (1992) about the general decline in writing ability among practicing scientists when he stated, “The standard for writing in current scientific journals has reached an all-time low, in terms of both poor grammar and imprecise communication.  This situation has been fueled on the one hand by escalating costs of publication and an attempt to shorten papers, and on the other hand by inadequate training in the structure of the English language…I examined the titles of the articles in the issues [of his journal] from the past five years.  Most contained grammatical errors. Many of the articles, although deserving an “A” for scientific content, scarcely merited a “C–“ were the articles to be submitted as a composition for a high school class in English” (Heatwole, 2008).  So, yes, I’m afraid that there is evidence of a widespread deficiency in the ability of scientists to write effectively. 

The reported inability to write is part of a larger problem

Is this the lack of ability to communicate limited to writing, or is this declining ability to write well a symptom of a much larger problem?  As you ponder that question, consider this account of one professor’s meeting with a student, “He entered my office for advice as a freshman advisee sporting nearly perfect SAT scores and an impeccable academic record—by all accounts a young man of considerable promise. During a 20-minute conversation about his academic future, however, he displayed a vocabulary that consisted mostly of two words: "cool" and "really." Almost 800 SAT points hitched to each word. To be fair, he could use them interchangeably as "really cool" or "cool . . . really!" He could also use them singly. When he was a student in a subsequent class, I later confirmed that my first impression of the young scholar was largely accurate and that his vocabulary, and presumably his mind, consisted predominantly of words and images derived from overexposure to television and the new jargon of computer-speak” (Orr, 1999).  This student, like many other students across the country, was able to accumulate an extremely impressive academic record in high school, but while doing so had not developed the ability to communicate effectively. 

There is disturbing evidence suggesting that our civilization is suffering from a general decline in vocabulary, and, consequently, a diminishing ability to communicate as effectively as we once did.  This assertion is supported by the fact that the average 14-year old living 60 years ago had a vocabulary of around 25,000 words, while the average 14-year old of today has a vocabulary of about 10,000 words (Spretnak, 1997).  Why is this happening? There are almost certainly a number of possible factors contributing to this decline in language. 

Our language is constantly under assault by people that benefit when your abilities to think critically and to communicate effectively are limited (Orr, 1999).  Advertisers are among the most egregious culprits of this attack.  The success of advertisers in their endeavor to influence and limit your thinking is underscored by the fact that the average person can readily identify over 1000 corporate logos, but they cannot identify more than a dozen or so kinds of local plants and animals (Orr, 1999).  If you think seriously about it, virtually every commercial that comes on television insults your intelligence and is an assault on your ability to think critically.  After all, the last thing advertisers want you to do is to think critically about decisions related to the way you spend money – they want to do that thinking for you.  Here’s one common example of an outright assault on critical thinking: follow this link, watch the commercial, and think critically about what these advertisers are trying to sell you (http://www.ktel.com/clevercutter/).  Advertisers do not, alas, have your best interests at heart.  Their primary goal is to make money by getting you to buy as much as they can get you to buy, as fast as they can and as often as they can, whether you truly need the thing or afford the thing they are trying to sell! 

Other constituencies that benefit when you stop thinking and communicating include the television, communication, computer game, internet, and, well, almost the entire media community.  Here’s a sobering fact: total media usage per person in the USA in 2006 was 3530 hours per year or 9.7 hours per day (VSS, 2007).  Those numbers include all forms of media, including print, television, internet, and even computer games.  Of that total media interface time Americans watched an average of 4.35 hours of television per day (VSS, 2003), and the average male college played video games for 2.4 hours per day (Sherry, et al., in press).  It’s little wonder that our collective language is slipping!  We don’t seem to have time for anything other than media.  And most media cannot be considered mind-expanding.  We are, alas, simply drifting along, letting various forms of media think for us, or we do not think at all!  It’s therefore no surprise that we’ve been counseled to “…read more and watch television less” (Hinckley, 1995). 

In short, we habitually waste too much time with mindless media and entertainment.  Then, because there is so little time in our days when we are not diverted by media we do allocate the time to develop the habits and skills of reading, pondering, critical thinking that are needed to write effectively.  When we finally do unplug from our collective media umbilicus, and we realize that we have to think seriously about something or write seriously about something, we may find it difficult to do so.  So we have, unfortunately, developed a tendency to sit down, dash something off, and hand it in.  After all, writing that way has always been “good enough” in the past.  It does not, alas, tend to be good enough anymore, at least not for a professional. 

I hope that we are now starting to think if not sweat a little about how we use our time, as well as about our ability to communicate effectively, particularly in writing.  Perhaps it is time to start thinking seriously about our skills as writers.  After all, as the data presented earlier in this paper suggest, the ability to write can have a significant impact on our prospects for advanced education and employment.  And, being able to acquire meaningful employment matters, because that is how we take care of our families. 

You need to be able to write well in order to succeed as a professional

Do you truly need to be able to communicate well to succeed in your target profession?  Apparently the American Medical Association and the Association of American Medical Colleges, the American Dental Association, administrators of graduate schools across the country, and managers of government agencies think so.  If you want to be a physician you must go to medical school, and in order to get into medical school you must do well on the MCAT (Medical College Admission Test).  The MCAT is made up of four sections: Physical Science, Verbal Reasoning, Writing, and Biological Science (AAMC, 2008).  That’s right; nearly half of the MCAT is devoted to assessing your ability to read and communicate effectively. If you want to go to dental school you must do well on the DAT (Dental Admissions Test).  The DAT includes sections on biology, general chemistry, organic chemistry, perceptual ability, and reading comprehension (ADA, 2008).  The DAT does not have a written section, but your ability to communicate through writing is tested via a required personal statement you must produce to accompany your application packet.  Your ability to write clearly and effectively is also important when you apply to professional school.  If you hope to go to graduate school you need to do well on the GRE (Graduate Record Exam) General Test. The GRE has three main sections: Verbal Reasoning, Quantitative Reasoning, and Analytical Writing (ETS, 2009).  Again, communication skills are vital not only to gaining admission to graduate school, but to success once you get there.  That is why nearly two thirds of the GRE is devoted to writing and critical analysis of written material.  What if you want to pursue a career in some area of natural resource management?  Do you need to write well?  Yes!  The first thing that employers and supervisors of interns in the field of natural resource management ask about any applicant is whether s/he can write (Stricklan, pers. comm.).  It should be painfully obvious that you need to be able to communicate well, including writing, in order to succeed as a professional in any field of biology.

What you can do to become a more effective writer

The problem of effective writing sometimes seems to be completely overwhelming.  That is particularly true when some professors may tell you one thing, and others tell you something different, and then no matter what you try to do you cannot seem to meet their expectations.  As we start looking at things that we can do to improve our ability to communicate with each other, I hope we will take the attitude of Helen Keller who said, “I am only one, but still I am one. I cannot do everything, but still I can do something; and because I cannot do everything, I will not refuse to do something that I can do.” 

Literature Cited

AAMA [Association of American Medical Colleges]. 2008. The Official Medical College Admission
Test Web Site.  Available from: http://www.aamc.org/students/mcat/ 
ADA [American Dental Association]. 2008. Dental Admission Test (DAT) Program Guide 2009.  
Davis, J.D., A.J. Korchgen, and B.W. Saigo. 1989. Employment prospects in biotechnology.
American Biology Teacher 51: 346-348.
Endler, J.A. 1992. Editorial on publishing papers in Evolution. Evolution 46(6): 1984-1989.
ETS (Educational Testing Services). 2009. GRE Details: Test Takers. Available from:
Heatwole, H. 2008. Editorial – A plea for scholarly writing. Integrative and Comparative Biology
48(2): 159-163.
Hinckley, G.B. 1995. Stand strong against the world. Ensign November 1995: 98-101.
National Research Council [Internet].  1997. Preparing for the 21st Century: The Education
Imperative. Last updated 2009. Available from:
Orr, D. W. 1999. Verbicide. Conservation Biology 13(4): 696-699.
Sherry, J. L., K. Lucas, B. Greenberg, and K. Lachlan. (in press). Video game uses and
gratifications as predictors of use and game preference. In P. Vorderer & J. Bryant (Eds.). Playing Computer Games: Motives, Responses, and Consequences. Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum. Information cited at: http://mentalhealth.about.com/cs/familyresources/a/videotv404.htm and https://www.msu.edu/~jsherry/Vita.html
Spretnak, C. 1997. The resurgence of the real. Addison-Wesley, Reading.
Stricklan, D. (pers.comm.). Internship coordinator for ecology and natural resource
management, Department of Biology, BYU-Idaho, Rexburg, Idaho.
Tattersall, G. 2008. Geekspeak: How Life + Mathematics = Happiness. Collins.
VSS [Veronis Suhler Stevenson]. 2003. Communications Industry Forecast and Report. Info
VSS [Veronis Suhler Stevenson]. 2007. Shift to Alternative Media Strategies Will Drive U.S.
Communications Spending Growth in 2007-2011 Period. Available from:  http://www.vss.com/news/index.asp?d_News_ID=166

Tuesday, February 5, 2013

Ice melt from the Greenland Ice Cap in 2012 smashed all previous records

The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC.org) just posted data on the 2012 Greenland ice cap melt.  It smashed all previous satellite records.

According to the NSIDC this was the first time since 1979 (the first satellite coverage of Greenland) that every point on the entire Greenland ice cap reached melt conditions for at least part of the melt season.  This is shocking news, since some of the ice cap is over 2 miles above sea level, and should be high enough in both latitude and altitude to stay below freezing all year long.  But, alas, temperatures climbed above freezing everywhere on the ice cap.

The graph below shows the historical average percentage of the Greenland ice cap that experienced melt conditions on a daily basis.  You should note that historically essentially no ice melts from Jan to April and Oct through December, and that the historical melt season starts in April and runs through September.  The data also show that on average only about 25% of the ice cap experiences melt conditions.
The red line in the graph below shows the 2012 melt extent.  Compare it to dashed blue line showing the historical average.  What should you be seeing here?  (Continued below the graph.)

You will, I hope, notice a few things.  One is that there was a spring melt event in late March where more than 10% of the ice cap reached melt conditions.  This was at least two months earlier than the historical average reaches that extent.  It was a short event, but it occurred all the same.  The biggest thing you should see is that the melt extent during the summer reached up 90%.  Historically only about 25% of the ice cap experiences melt conditions.  In short, the 2012 Greenland ice cap melt exceeded anything observed so far in modern times.

The map below shows the 1979-2007 average of the cumulative number of days areas of the ice cap reached melt conditions.  Historically, the north edge of the ice cap experienced about 10-15 days of melt conditions.  The central east coast had even fewer than that.  And the SW coast experienced the most.  Now let's take a look at the cumulative number of melt days across the ice cap during 2012...look at the second map down.


The map below shows a frightening increase in the number of melt days even in regions mainly resistant to melting in previous years.  For example, the northern edge of the ice cap experienced 100+ days of ice melt, the central east coast had 50-60 days, and the SW coast also had 100+ days. In fact, all ice cap edges experienced shocking numbers of days of melt conditions during 2012.  And, as mentioned above, even the center of the ice cap reached melt conditions for a few days.


The map below shows air temperature anomalies for June-August 2012 compared to historical averages.  What this means is that the closer a region is to the red end of the scale, the warmer is is compared to historical averages, and the closer it is to the purple end, the cooler it was.  The map shows that the entire ice cap experienced increased temperatures compared to the historical average.  

The SW coast was especially hard-hit with temperatures in the +3.0oC range, while the center of the ice cap had temperatures that were 1oC to 2oC above average.  Nowhere in Greenland experienced below average temperatures during this time period.


The bottom line is that during 2012 Greenland's ice cap experienced unprecedented ice melt conditions compared to data from the satellite record (since 1979).

Should we be concerned about this?  I am.

Well, there is a chance that this could have been an isolated warmer than average year, but all other data from the Arctic in terms of temperatures, sea ice cover, etc., indicates that this kind of extreme melt year will most likely become more frequent if the forcing factors driving climate change are not mitigated.

Climatologists and oceanographers predict that if the entire Greenland ice cap were to melt, we would most likely see global sea level rise of about +7.0 meters (that's over 20 ft).  That would be catastrophic and make the flooding that occurred during Hurricane Sandy look like a nice day in the park.

Come on people, it's time to get to work doing things that will mitigate the effects of climate change.

That's my 2 cents' worth...

Friday, January 25, 2013

Don't be fooled, there is scientific consensus on anthropogenic climate change

Many people (almost entirely non-scientists or non-climatologists) inaccurately claim that the scientific community either has not or cannot reach consensus on the topic of anthropogenic climate change (i.e., global warming).  This claim has become a worn and weary diatribe used by some people, yes, I will even go as far  as to say "conspiring men" who are trying to muddy the waters on a topic that is accepted nearly universally by the practicing scientific community.

Why do people believe these conspiring men?  Because it happens to fit their pre-existing notions or opinions on climate, economy, religion, or plays to their benefit in terms of vested interest (e.g., oil industry).

The bottom line is that the scientific community has near unanimous consensus on the topic of climate change.  By the way, what proportion of scientists would it take to constitute a consensus?  50.1%, 60%. 75%, 80%, 90%, 95%, 98%, 99%, 100%?

I think that we can all agree that reaching a 100% consensus on any scientific theory is nigh unto unattainable, but was exactly what was discovered in a study carried out in 2004, and consensus has continued to strengthen since then.

In 2004, a study by the well-resepcted UC San Diego sociologist Naomi Oreskes was published Science, America's most prestigious scientific journal (http://leisureguy.wordpress.com/2007/09/04/the-scientific-consensus-on-global-warming/).  Results described in that study showed that NONE of the 982 peer-reviewed scientific papers on the topic of climate change published between 1993 and 2003 disputed the conclusion of anthropogenic climate change.

Other studies have claimed to show disputations and lack of consensus among scientists regarding anthropogenic climate change.  For example, a paper titled "Scientific Consensus on Global Warming" was published in the latter 2000s http://ruby.fgcu.edu/courses/twimberley/EnviroPol/ScientificConsensusOnGlobalWarming.pdf.

Be advised that the formatting and layout of these kinds of papers are intended to make them appear to be credible sources of information, but they are not comparable to peer-reviewed publications in professional scientific journals.

Back to the Heartland Institute paper...it reported moderate agreement on some topics, but significant disagreement on others.  There are, however, several points of concern related to this report and others like it.  The most important concern is that this report cannot be considered verifiable scientific information since it was never subjected to peer-review and was not published in a reputable scientific journal.  Another note of concern is the source of the paper itself.  It is a product of "The Heartland Institute".  Investigative research into public records shows that this institute and others like it are engaged in carrying out an active campaign to cloud the public's perception of well-documented scientific conclusions regarding climate change.  If you have questions about this I strongly recommend that you take a look at the book "Merchants of Doubt" by Naomi Oreskes (http://www.merchantsofdoubt.org/)

You can also read more about the oil-backed Heartland Institute at this site: http://www.desmogblog.com/heartland-institute.

Getting back to the original point of the posting.  There is clearly near unanimous consensus among climate scientists (98%+) that climate change is happening and more than 90% confident (IPCC report, 2007) that the current trend of global warming is being driven mainly by anthropogenic forcing factors, including greenhouse gas emissions and land-use changes, among other activities.

So what does scientific lack of consensus on verifiable scientific observations on this topic look like?  It looks like this:



Every year, groups of climatologists working independently in the USA, Great Britain, Japan, and other locations around the world, collect temperature data and generate average annual observed temperatures.  They can then plot their data onto one graph, as shown above, and see where differences and variations among their results are.  If there is any lack of consensus it is that some data show slightly warmer temperatures some years, while others show slightly cooler ones, but within a range of acceptable statistical variability, all the data produce the same long-term trends.  In other words - consensus.  

Similar work is done by climatologists investigating causes (also referred to as climate forcing factors), and they also nearly universally conclude that without human-produced effects, we would not currently be experiencing a warming trend.  Instead we would be experiencing a gradual cooling trend.

So whenever you hear someone parroting some out of date or completely unsupportable fallacy that there is no scientific consensus on anthropogenic climate change, ask them about their source of information.  It will inevitably originate in some non-scientific think tank or media outlet that clearly has an agenda that benefits if people do not understand that there is scientific consensus on climate change and that we had better get busy doing something about mitigating the effects of climate change. 

That's all for today.  Cheers!